A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
